To new beginnings
But I’ve decided it’s time for me to strike out on my own.
I’m moving to the Douglas Elliman national headquarters at 575 Madison Avenue.
I’m still within my dear Elliman family.
What’s changed is that I am now an independent agent, spreading my wings, charting my own path. I am fully in charge of the business and brand I am building. With this change comes more resources to better serve my clients, powered by the amazing Elliman brand. More PR and marketing support, more market intelligence, more opportunities and more markets.
October 22, 2024
The journey ahead
Dear friends,
I wrote and rewrote this letter many times before it arrived in your inbox this afternoon. I have always wanted to provide value in each of my letters, both educational and entertainment.
But this month, I had a dilemma. Something monumental has happened in my world, in my work as a real estate agent, and it’s caused me to reflect on the journey I have had since arriving in New York 15 years ago. I really wanted to share my reflections with you, so I’m dedicating this month’s newsletter to this.
(My regular programming of market insights and happenings in and around town will resume in November.)
Today, I am writing to share with you something big! Something both professional and personal.
I’ve been a part of Grace Chang’s team, based in Douglas Elliman’s Upper West Side office, since my career in real estate began almost four years ago. Grace has been selling New York City real estate for longer than I’ve been alive, and she was my mother’s first real estate agent in NYC when I was still in college. I literally could not have asked for a better mentor as a newbie in the frankly chaotic world of real estate. I can’t thank her enough.
But I’ve decided it’s time for me to strike out on my own.
I’m moving to the Douglas Elliman national headquarters at 575 Madison Avenue.
I’m still within my dear Elliman family. What’s changed is that I am now an independent agent, spreading my wings, charting my own path.
I am fully in charge of the business and brand I am building.
With this change comes more resources to better serve my clients, powered by the amazing Elliman brand. More PR and marketing support, more market intelligence, more opportunities and more markets.
I have expanded my real estate work beyond NYC. This year alone, I have partnered up with an experienced Westchester agent to sell my client’s stunning home in Rye. I have connected my friends with trustworthy agents that helped them secure their first homes in DC and Queens.
I just had a call the other week about connecting a friend with a reliable buyer’s agent in Los Angeles.
I am planning to expand my ability to serve my clients to two new markets next year. More to come on that later ;)
✨🏡✨
Are you dreaming of your next home? Book a free 30-minute consultation with me with no strings attached.
On retracing my steps
Retracing my steps the other day, I thought back to some of the places where I’ve grown to who I am today.
I have lived in 10 apartments since I arrived at JFK with three suitcases at the age of 18.
(Yes, for New Yorkers that come here without family or friends, it’s quite common to move this often.)
I stood outside my freshman year dorm at NYU, in the East Village at Third Ave and 11th St and looked at my fourth-floor bedroom window, with the eyes of a 33-year-old married woman running my own second business. I saw my younger self, living happily with five other girls who made me feel at home in a new country, who indulged my Chinese cooking in our shared kitchen, which could get greasy and smoky.
I also stopped by my sophomore year dorm, in Gramercy. The bank downstairs has changed from HSBC to Citizens, and the fancy condo-dorm conversion is finally showing some age, after 14 years. But I still remember being in awe to live in my first luxury condo in NYC, with stainless steel appliances and big windows showing views of Manhattan.
My living situation in NYC also took me to Alphabet City (East 10th St between Ave C & D), Woodhaven (Queens), the Lower East Side (Allen St and Houston St), Bushwick (Jefferson St near Myrtle & Broadway), Hell’s Kitchen (42nd St and 10th Ave), Fort Greene (St. Felix St between Fulton and Dekalb), before I eventually settled down in the Upper West Side, two blocks away from my mother.
Every move was a story. Some ended in tears. I remember pushing a cart of my belongings from my Gramercy dorm to my Alphabet City summer sublet with my college boyfriend, and the wheels of the cart kept sliding off the sidewalk, or getting caught in potholes. It was supposed to be a 30-minute walk, but it took us over an hour, in the heat of summer. We almost broke down on the street.
But it was also these moves, to all these different neighborhoods, that have educated me on the fabrics of NYC, allowing me to see so much about the city that many others might take decades to learn.
And today, as a real estate agent in New York helping clients with homes in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and beyond, I tap into my knowledge and experiences in all the neighborhoods I have lived in to articulate a level of understanding that makes my clients feel seen and heard.
I'm grateful for the journey I have had in New York, and I am so excited to find out where I am going next.
Who knows… maybe I’ll start my own team some day? :)
This is the start of an exciting new chapter, in a new place, and I can’t wait to experience it together with all of you.
Let’s chat soon!
XO,
Judy
——————————————————————————————————————————
In the media
Early this month, I spoke to the Houston Chronicle about how I use real estate accounting software in my business.
And a few weeks ago I gave my thoughts about mortgage rates to Investopedia. Check it out!
——————————————————————————————————————————
How I saved one client thousands of dollars (with video explainer!)
Welcome to the second edition of my blog! For everyone who returned for my encore performance, I appreciate you. And if you’re just checking in for the first time, I’m so glad to have you. This blog is where I give you my perspective on what’s really going on in New York real estate, from someone whose boots (or sandals, for another few weeks!) are on the ground!
September 11, 2024
An interest in rates
Welcome to the second edition of my blog! For everyone who returned for my encore performance, I appreciate you. And if you’re just checking in for the first time, I’m so glad to have you. This blog is where I give you my perspective on what’s really going on in New York real estate, from someone whose boots (or sandals, for another few weeks!) are on the ground!
Last month, we talked about how we make sense of the chaos in the market. At the time, a massive stock selloff had just sent global equities markets into turmoil, and there were urgent calls for the Federal Reserve to finally bring down rates.
Within a short amount of time, the stock market bounced back, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. And the Fed kept rates the same last month, although they announced it was time for a policy change. The path for future Fed rate cuts is more certain.
As shown by the Fed funds futures, the market predicts a 0.25% rate cut for this month and potentially a whopping 0.5% cut in the Fed’s meeting in November.
Important Note #1: Don’t get too excited yet, as the market has been wrong before (like the past 18 months straight…).
But this is certainly a good sign for buyers and sellers alike, as it reflects the positive signals being sent by the highest banking system in the country.
✨🏡✨
Are you dreaming of your next home? Book a free 30-minute consultation with me with no strings attached.
Are rate cuts getting priced in?
I’ve been hearing from clients that they’re excited about the impending rate cut because they believe it could lead to lower mortgage rates.
However, the truth is a little more complicated.
GOOD NEWS: Mortgage rates have already dropped for four straight weeks!
But the Fed hasn’t started cutting rates yet.
So why have mortgage rates already dropped? It’s because mortgage rates are not directly set by the Fed.
When people talk about the Fed raising or lowering rates, they mean the federal funds rate, which is the interest banks can charge other banks for short-term loans that they need to meet their daily reserve requirements.
The federal funds rate can affect the interest rates for consumers, such as credit card APRs and car leases, but mortgage rates are even more tied to the 10-year Treasury yield than to the federal funds rate.
Mortgage rates, like the 10-year Treasuries, reflect the market’s sentiments. Investors have been feeling more optimistic lately that the Fed will start cutting rates, which signals that it believes inflation has cooled. This drives investors to purchase more 10-year Treasuries, as lower interest rates make buying Treasuries more attractive.
We all know that when demand increases, and supply is limited, the price goes up.
So, the prices for 10-year Treasuries have increased.
If you prefer a video explanation…
But since the notes offer fixed interest payments (the coupon) when issued, as the Treasury prices increase, the yield (the return on this investment) decreases.
This is just like if you are buying an investment property that has an existing lease paying out a certain amount: the more you spend on buying this property, the less your cap rate is!
And when banks set mortgage rates, they use the 10-year Treasury yield as a benchmark, albeit with a risk premium added on top. When the yield goes down, the mortgage rates generally go down as well.
So that kind of helps to explain why mortgage rates have dropped for four straight weeks even with the Fed dragging its feet.
True story: My clients’ amazing mortgage deal
In early June, one of my clients entered into contract to purchase a new home. They had locked their mortgage rates in early June. By late August, they renegotiated their mortgage rate down a whopping 0.725% (special shout out to my lending partner Mike Bomparola from CrossCountry Mortgage for making this happen!). They’ll save thousands of dollars over the lifetime of the loan.
My clients were able to benefit because they were first-time home buyers.
Many lenders offer special programs for first-time home buyers. If you qualify, these programs can help you significantly lower your costs. In my client’s case, CrossCountry Mortgage, a Douglas Elliman partner I referred them to, provided them with $6,500 in down payment assistance and a $500 rebate for bank appraisal (totaling $7,000 of free money!), through Community Promise, a first-time home buyer program. In addition, this program only required 3% minimum down payment.
With the extra cash freed up, my client was then able to further buy down their interest rate—in essence, paying a little more up front to save a lot of money down the road.
Another mortgage program I love is from Citi’s Law Firm Group, a private banking service with special offerings for some top legal practices and attorneys. My husband used to work in big law, so I’m all too familiar with the grueling hours and sudden disappearances (of my husband at dinners, vacations, etc!). But working in big law does come with perks, and one of them is your firm might be a part of the Citi’s Law Firm Group program: it offers a 0.25% discount on mortgage rates, 90% financing with no PMI (private mortgage insurance that’s usually required when financing more than 80%), and a free rate-lock for 120 days (excellent for co-op purchases which can take longer with the board approval process).
Important Note #2: If you are buying a co-op or condo, the board will have its own minimum down payment requirements that may be higher than what these low down payment programs allow!
My client was lucky enough to qualify for CrossCountry Mortgage’s Community Promise program because they lived in an area that was an eligible census tract, were first-time homebuyers, and planned to live in the home as their primary residence.
And that’s why you shouldn’t start your journey alone. I couldn’t be more excited for my clients to start the next chapter of their lives, and I would LOVE to help you figure out if you could qualify for any extra assistance that you can get in this expensive city!
Truly yours,
Judy
In late August, I spoke with Kim Rittberg, an award-winning video marketer, coach, and podcaster, for her show The Exit Interview. We talked about my personal journey from my home country of China, to the UK for high school, and arriving in New York as a newcomer with no connections and two suitcases (shout out to Zack, now my marketing manager, for helping me carry them from JFK to my dorm room 15 years ago!), as well as how integrating videos in my marketing plan this year has helped me rekindle old connections and create a thriving business. Listen below!
Make it stand out
Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.
State of the market
Here are my quick takeaways from the Q2 2024 Brooklyn market report:
It might be four years since the pandemic had everyone moving from Manhattan to Brooklyn. But Brooklyn is still hot, baby! The median sales price rose to the highest on record, reaching $990,000, increasing year over year by 4.2%.Median sales price for condos increased annually by 14%, to $1.085M, breaking another record. As the appeal of BK rises, so does the price tag.
Listing inventory increased 14.5% annually, the first time it’s up in nine quarters! This is partly because sales volume declined by almost 5% year over year, so there are more properties available for sale, and the pace of the market (months of supply) slowed. However, Brooklyn is still selling, compared to pre-pandemic times, with sales volume remaining 4% above the second quarter decade average.
Greenpoint and Williamsburg experienced a 68.2% annual surge in sales, reaching 12.3% of the borough market share. I am happy to have contributed to this surge with my buyer’s beautiful three-bedroom condo by McCarren Park, which closed in July!
Cash deals were 42.8% of sales closed in the last quarter, the third highest in a decade of tracking. The highest record of cash deals was in the prior quarter, reaching 45.4%. With the interest rate cuts on the horizon, the market share of cash buyers might reduce further in the coming months.
Bidding wars also slipped a little bit, to 18.6% of market share, down from 20.2%, a welcome relief for buyers (bidding wars are stressful!). But as median sales price hit new highs, this could also be a sign that sellers are pricing more accurately in the market. As a result, when bidding wars happen, the premium paid was 7% over last asking price, slightly higher than the 6.3% premium paid in the previous year.
Allow me reintroduce myself
In April 2021, after running my own translation business for six years (woohoo Cantos Translations!), I got my real estate license. Interest rates were 2.65%, open houses had long lines, and bidding wars were happening everywhere.
August 6, 2024
If you’re wondering why I’ve started a newsletter, then let me give you a little backstory.
In April 2021, after running my own translation business for six years (woohoo Cantos Translations!), I got my real estate license. Interest rates were 2.65%, open houses had long lines, and bidding wars were happening everywhere.
But over the next two years, interest rates tripled, causing chaos for buyers and sellers alike. In Manhattan, we saw some price drops, but it was hardly enough to outweigh the increased mortgage payments buyers were facing. This was because sellers didn't want to give up their low mortgage rate for a high one, causing inventory to plummet. With few affordable options, buyers were left in the lurch.
At family and friends’ gatherings, people often asked me to help them make sense of the market. They needed to know how to navigate the confusing and stressful world of finding their next home.
Cutting through the noise
Yesterday—August 5, 2024—was a good example. Global stock markets abruptly ended a months-long rally in a massive sell-off that saw the S&P 500 plunging more than 8% from its peak. Experts predicted that the Federal Reserve might finally cut rates to stave off further disaster.
What would that mean for the prospective home buyer? How would they know?
For most people, their home is their most valuable asset, and the people who reached out to me, whether through referrals or from within my own network, were looking for the unvarnished truth about real estate.
A lot of people were asking me about a catchy turn of phrase they'd heard: "Marry the house, date the rate." Essentially to buy now in spite of the high interest rates, then refinance later when rates come back down to Earth.
I'd heard the line, too, from one popular real estate influencer or another. The thinking goes, if you buy when other potential buyers are priced out of the market, you'll face less competition. And you might even come in under the asking price.
There are many issues with "marry the house, date the rate," I explained. For one, you won't earn equity as quickly if you're struggling to pay off the high interest. It also doesn't take into account the refinancing costs you'd have to pay when you take out a new mortgage. If rates do come down meaningfully and you refinance into a lower-rate mortgage, that could be ideal, but who knows when that would be? The timeline for a rate cut kept getting pushed back, and a cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points would not make it worth the refinancing cost and trouble.
✨🏡✨
Are you dreaming of your next home? Book a free 30-minute consultation with me with no strings attached.
What your fave real estate influencer doesn't get
My advice was simple. Don't buy a home you can't afford today. Instead, look for a more affordable home. Or wait until you save up for a bigger down payment, so your monthly mortgage is more manageable.
Important distinction: I am not advising you to wait for the rate to come down. Do not try to time the market. My advice is to buy within your means, at the right time for you.
If you manage to save up for a larger down payment, not only will you be able to knock out a significant chunk of the principal, but this may also make you a stronger bidder than a competitor with the same (or even higher) offer price, because you would be more likely to be approved by a lender and the building’s board, making you the safer choice. And it could help you avoid additional costs like private mortgage insurance.
So that's the story of how I saved my friends thousands of dollars—and talked myself out of commissions. You're welcome.
It's those kinds of stories that landed me on the idea for this newsletter. Your source of real estate information should be as reliable as possible, since buying, selling or renting real estate will be one of the most important decisions you'll ever make.
Once a month, I will share my distillation of what’s happening in the market, broken down into clear points for you, while I do the work of sifting through market data, macro-economic trends, and boots-on-the-ground experiences with actual clients.
I hope that, through my words, you'll feel empowered, and that you'll find something worthwhile to chew on while you ponder whether and when to take that next big leap.
This is a journey we're taking together!
In late July, I spoke with Debbi DiMaggio, a fellow real estate agent based in California, for her Mastering the Art of Real Estate podcast. Listen below!
State of the market
A few quick takeaways I got from reading the dense Q2 2024 Manhattan Market Report:
1. Sales volumes are up 12% year over year, as people psychologically adjust to the high-interest-rate environment, and many buyers and sellers feel they can no longer wait to make a move (think a growing family of three or even four squeezed in a one-bedroom, or an empty-nester with not much income hanging on to a four-bedroom). But sales volume still hasn’t quite recovered, landing almost 6% below the second-quarter decade average.
2. Listing inventory is up 4% year over year, and almost 14% above the second-quarter decade average. But more homes are selling than before, so the pace of the market (“months of supply") actually accelerated. Still, the months of supply measurement hasn’t quite recovered to the average, since sales volume isn’t fully back (see point 1).
3. Cash deals were 62% of sales closed in the last quarter. For sales under $1m, 52% of transactions were cash. For sales above $5m, 99.6% of deals were cash. This partly explains why cash buyers in the luxury market are not seeing the kind of cash discounts they might expect, as almost all competing offers are cash too. One reason for this is that high-net-worth individuals are leveraging their stock portfolios for a revolving line of credit with potentially better interest rates.
4. Sellers are pricing more accurately than last year, as the number of sales with price changes fell to 27% from 39%.
5. But even with fewer price changes, listing discounts from last list price are up to 11%, almost double that of a year ago, which was 5.9%.
6. One of the age-old benefits of owning a home might be becoming a bit blurrier, as monthly carrying costs (money that doesn’t build equity) keep increasing. The average monthly maintenance cost for a co-op sale was $2,960, or $2.64 per square foot per month, a new high and up almost 8% annually. The average monthly common charge plus real estate tax for a condo was a record $4,429, up almost 2% annually, or $3.08 per square foot per month. To understand this, imagine you paid cash for a 700 square feet one bedroom condo: your monthly carrying cost would still be over $2,100 per month!
